As the curtains rise on another month in the ever-dynamic theatre of Australian real estate, July parades a scene that might leave even the most seasoned property buffs raising an eyebrow or two.

The CoreLogic Home Value Index reports a nationwide uplift of 0.5%, marking the 18th consecutive rise. Though the plot thickens with a peculiar twist—three capital cities are dancing to a slightly different tune, with values notably dipping. Taking a whistle-stop tour across the capitals, Melbourne is taking the lead in this unusual ballet, having seen values dip by 0.9%. Hobart and Darwin are not far behind, experiencing reductions of 0.8% and 0.3%, respectively. Meanwhile, Sydney’s property scene seems to be cooling off too, with growth slowing to a mere 1.1%—a stark contrast to the spirited 5.0% growth this time last year.

Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane surge ahead

But before the naysayers start their chorus, let’s swing our spotlight towards the mid-sized capitals where the party is still in full swing. Perth, for instance, is booming with a 6.2% quarterly growth. Adelaide isn’t far behind, revving up the charts with a 5.0% increase. And let’s not overlook Brisbane, where despite a slight cool down from last year’s 4.7%, properties are still fetching a commendable 3.8% increase this quarter.

Now, every good story needs a bit of context, right? CoreLogic’s maestro of metrics, Tim Lawless, attributes these varied performances to—wait for it—supply! Yes, it seems the old adage of ‘location, location, location’ holds true, with Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth flaunting a supply lower than 30% of the average, keeping the sellers’ market alive and kicking. On the flip side, Melbourne and Hobart are bursting at the seams with homes for sale, dampening the festive mood somewhat.

Units flip the pandemic preference for houses

But what of the humble units, we hear you ask? In a surprising turn of events, units are now outperforming houses in most capitals, save for Darwin and the ACT. This shift is particularly poignant for those feeling the squeeze of the property market’s upper echelons, as units offer a more attainable rung on the property ladder amidst the affordability crunch.

Investors head west

Investor activity is also seeing a bit of a renaissance, with lending for investment purposes surging up by a notable 24.8% compared to last year. Western Australia, in particular, is seeing investors flocking, tempted by rapid value increases and juicier yields compared to the heavyweight capitals.

So, as we take our seats for the next act of this property saga, it’s clear the market remains a mixed bag—a veritable feast for some, a famine for others. With construction woes and an underwhelming new housing supply, the narrative is bound to keep us on our toes. Whether you’re a first-home buyer tentatively stepping onto the stage, or an investor poised in the wings, the Australian housing market remains as enthralling and unpredictable as ever.

Monthly change in capital city home values